Sports Analytics Blog


HIgh NFL Draft Picks – Nature or Nurture?

Ryan Riddle of Bleacher Report writes about the hidden advantage of being a high NFL Draft Pick. He acknowledges there is a big dropoff from the first 15 picks which generates starters between 80-90 percent of the time going towards the end of the third round where your chance of finding a starter falls to (about) 30 percent. But wonders if this is a result of confirmation bias. Riddle offers up the Seattle Seahawks are one of the better teams at recognizing this flaw in the system. They’ve produced some of the most successful late-round draft picks in the NFL which has culminated into back-to-back Super Bowl appearances.

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