Good reminder of the value of NFL turnovers by Austin Tymins on the Harvard Sports Analytic Collective blog. The article contrasts the work of Pete Palmer and Bob Carroll in their “The Hidden Game of Football” and the expected points datasets from Advanced Football Analytics. Tymins reminds us to not overestimate the impact of red zone turnovers. 1st down and deep-zone turnovers can be just as costly. My guess is that the expected points impact of turnovers datasets for the NFL should be fairly close to college football’s. Anyone know if there are similar college football datasets?
- How much can you get outrebounded by and still win?
- Charlie Coles (RIP) and pace