Sports Analytics Blog


Take the first two QBs in the Draft, or the field?

Chase Stuart from looks at whether it’s better two take the top two QB’s in the Draft or the field. He goes through each draft from 1999 to 2010 subjectively and determines that taking the first two over the field would have worked 8-9 times out of those 13 drafts. But then he gets quantitative and looks at the drafts from 1967 through 2010. Using a number of different metrics, the results were fairly consistent that the top two picks beat the field about 60% of the time.

Top two success rate by metric:

  • Passing yards – 61%
  • Approximate value – 59%
  • QB wins – 64%
  • Relative adjusted net yards – 51%

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