Sports Analytics Blog


Dalton and Green on the same page? Not really.

Football Outsiders came out with their 2014 incomplete pass breakdown. Not surprisingly, A.J. Green ranked 18th among wide receivers in uncatchable targets. Which is defined as balls batted at the line, quarterback hit in motion, overthrown, quarterback release slipped, thrown away, tipped by teammate or underthrown. Of Green’s 116 targets, 35 (30.2%) were uncatchable. Mohammed Sanu checks in at 65th with 20 uncatchable balls in 98 targets (20.4%). I’m sure they have it but I’m interested in overthrow stats by QB. In my opinion, Andy Dalton is king of the 1st quarter overthrow.

While Dalton has struggled to throw the ball accurately down the field in his career, he is pretty accurate in the short game. Jermaine Gresham is 26th among tight ends (12.7% uncatchable rate) and Gio Bernard is 16th  (15.3% rate) among running backs.

Sanu doesn’t fare very well in the defensed/dropped category. He is 7th in defensed rate with 14 of 98 targets defensed (14.3%). He is 3rd in drops at 8.2% (dropped 8 of 98 targets). A.J. Green shines in both categories. Only 7 of his 116 targets (6.0%) were defensed and he dropped just 2 of 116 targets (1.7%). Those figures rank him 69th and 70th respectively among wide receivers in those two categories.

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