As I already posted, the strength of schedule gods are not smiling upon the Bengals for the 2015 season. Now, Bill Barnwell of FiveThirtyEight.com writes about what 2014 NFL statistics can tell us about 2015. Not good news for the Whodeys.
Barnwell points out that there are four key statistics that can identify teams poised to improve or decline:
- Point differential
- Record in one-score games
- Turnover margin
- Defensive touchdowns allowed
In point differential, the Bengals were second only to Arizona in outperforming their expected record using the Pythagorean method. Cincinnati outperformed its expected record by 1.9 wins. This usually signals a decline the next season as your record tends to come more in line with Pythagorean expectations. Not surprisingly, the Bengals also fared very well in one-score games going 3-0-1. Second to Green Bay’s 5-0 mark.
There is some good news. The Bengals didn’t rank in the Top 5 in turnover margin or defensive touchdowns allowed. So there’s that.